AD Mortgage study finds buying now beats waiting in 61%
A study from AD Mortgage analyzing data from 2000 to 2022 found that purchasing a home immediately led to lower total costs than waiting two years in 61%
Buying a home now beat waiting two years in 61% of historical scenarios, according to a new study from AD Mortgage. The analysis examined home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes across all 50 states and Washington D.C. From 2000 through 2022.
AD Mortgage's study, titled "Does the Perfect Time to Buy Exist?", compared the financial outcome of purchasing in a given year with waiting two years under the actual market conditions that followed. The firm's CEO, Max Slyusarchuk, advised buyers not to delay if a deal makes sense. "Trying to predict the market is not a guarantee as this study proves," Slyusarchuk said in a statement.
The research assumed a 15% down payment and used the average annual 30-year fixed mortgage rate to calculate payments. For the waiting scenario, it was assumed buyers saved 10% of the median annual household income in each of the two years before purchasing. Data came from Zillow's Home Value Index, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Geographic and yearly differences
The advantage of buying immediately varied sharply by location and timing. California and Florida showed the strongest buy-now cases, with the strategy proving better in 74% of analyzed scenarios in each state. In contrast, West Virginia had one of the lowest advantages at 39%.
The entry year was also critical. Buying immediately was the superior strategy in nearly all scenarios during certain hot markets.
| Year | Scenarios where buying now was better |
|---|---|
| 2003 | 98% |
| 2004 | 100% |
| 2005 | 94% |
| 2015 | 92% |
| 2016 | 100% |
| 2017 | 96% |
| 2020 | 100% |
| 2021 | 100% |
| 2022 | 100% |
Waiting was the dominant strategy from 2007 through 2010. Buying immediately produced a better outcome in none of the scenarios during each of those four years.
The role of mortgage rates
The study found that falling mortgage rates did not automatically make waiting the better choice. Between 2000 and 2002, the average 30-year fixed rate fell from 8.05% to 6.54%. Yet buying immediately still yielded a better outcome in 34% of state scenarios.
The opposite pattern occurred between 2013 and 2015. Rates declined only slightly, from 3.98% to 3.85%, but buying immediately was the better strategy in 84% of scenarios.
Affordability involves more than rates
These results show how rising home prices can cancel out the benefit of lower borrowing costs. This happens especially when prices climb faster than a potential buyer can save. "Mortgage rates are only one part of the affordability equation," the report stated. "Changes in home prices, savings growth, and local market conditions often played an equally important role."
The study concluded that a buyer's financial readiness may matter more than pinpointing a perfect market moment. Affordability hinges on multiple factors including prices, rates, and personal savings capacity.
The analysis has several limitations. It is based solely on historical conditions and does not forecast future markets. It also excludes factors like home equity, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, HOA fees, rents, investment returns, and tax benefits. AD Mortgage said the goal was to isolate the impact of purchase timing under consistent assumptions. The datasets were accessed on July 20, 2026.
